Yes probably, but the government is not going to admit to it.
As of early 2026, approximately 25% (1 in 4) of the UK’s working-age population (aged 16–64) has a criminal record. This represents between 9.4 and 12.6 million individuals. Key statistics regarding criminal records in the UK include:
Total Records: There are over 12.6 million nominal records held on the Police National Computer (PNC) for individuals with a “criminal element” against their names.
By Gender: Approximately 33% (1 in 3) of adult men in the UK have a criminal record, compared to a lower percentage of women.
Composition of Records: A “criminal record” is a broad term; estimates indicate that while 27% of working-age adults have a criminal conviction, the wider figure of 1 in 4 for “nominal records” also includes cautions, reprimands, and cases where no further action was taken.
Annual Growth: The number of individuals with records increases by roughly 200,000 per year, a growth rate of approximately 1.67% annually.
Recent Trends: In the year ending June 2025, approximately 1.20 million offenders were convicted in the UK, a 4% increase over the previous year.
Given that 18% of the prison population of England and Wales are followers of Islam, what is the best estimate for the percentage of Muslims having a criminal record?
While the UK government systematically tracks the religion of prisoners, it does not centrally record the religious affiliation of every person who receives a criminal conviction or a police caution. Consequently, there is no official “percentage” for the number of Muslims in the UK with a criminal record.
However, using current 2026 data and the most recent Ministry of Justice and Office for National Statistics figures, the following is the best possible estimate:
The Disproportionality Proxy
If the general UK working-age population has a criminal record rate of ~25%, the rate for Muslims is likely higher due to their over-representation in the criminal justice system.
Population Share: Muslims make up approximately 6.5% of the general population in England and Wales.
Prison Share: Followers of Islam make up 18.2% of the prison population (approx. 15,900 individuals).
The Ratio: This represents an over-representation of approximately 2.8 to 3.7 times their share of the general population.
Why a Single Percentage is Difficult to Estimate While the prison data shows a clear disparity, translating “18% of prisoners” into a “percentage of the Muslim population with a record” is complicated by conversions in prison: A significant portion of the “Muslim prison population” consists of individuals who converted to Islam while incarcerated. For example, official figures show over 3,000 “White Muslims” in prison, many of whom are believed to be converts. These individuals have criminal records but were not necessarily Muslim when they committed their offences.
If we simply remove the converts number, re-calculate the Muslim prison population and extrapolate from there. By removing the estimated number of converts and applying the remaining over-representation ratio to the general population’s criminal record rate, we can derive a specific estimate.
Official data and academic studies consistently indicate that approximately 30% of the Muslim prison population consists of individuals who converted to Islam while incarcerated.
Total Muslim Prison Population: ~15,900 (18.2% of all prisoners).
Estimated “Pre-Prison” Muslims: Removing 30% leaves approximately 11,130 individuals who were Muslim before entering the justice system.
Adjusted Prison Share: When converts are excluded, “born-Muslims” make up roughly 12.7% of the total prison population.
Calculating the Over-representation Ratio
To estimate the wider criminal record rate, we compare this adjusted prison share to the Muslim share of the general population.
General Muslim Population Share: ~6.7% of the population in England and Wales (based on 2025/2026 estimates of 4 million Muslims).
Likelihood Ratio: A 12.7% share of prisoners coming from a 6.7% share of the population suggests that Muslims are approximately 1.9 times more likely to be in the criminal justice system than the national average, even after excluding converts.
Extrapolating the Criminal Record Percentage
The baseline for the general UK working-age population having a criminal record is 25% (1 in 4).
Statistical Estimate: Applying the 1.9x likelihood ratio to the 25% baseline produces an estimated criminal record rate of 47.5% for the Muslim working-age population.
Summary of the Best Estimate
